The UK Has a New Boss 🇬🇧

Welcome back to the Day Trading newsletter 📈

Stocks drifted lower Monday as the US-Iran conflict entered another week and Washington opened a new tariff front with Canada.

The day's real drama was in London, where the bond market wasted no time testing Britain's brand-new prime minister.

Let’s get into it 👇️ 

📃 President Trump slapped 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods Monday, citing unfair treatment of American autos, alcohol and dairy. He signed three proclamations covering products from cars to wine to cement, effective in 30 days. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer hinted more tariffs on other countries could come soon.

🛢️ Brent crude briefly topped $90 a barrel after the US confirmed at least three service members have died in fighting with Iran. Brent settled up about 1.3% at $89.22 Monday and WTI rose 0.9% to $83.23 — crude is up roughly 20% this month — as Trump warned Iran would "pay many times over" for killing American soldiers.

💳️ PayPal's board formally rejected Stripe and Advent International's $60.50-per-share takeover offer Monday, multiple outlets reported, pushing for a price reportedly closer to $70. The board views the roughly $53 billion bid as undervaluing the company. Analysts read the rejection as the opening move of a negotiation — not a final no.

🧑‍⚖️ A federal judge paused Paramount Skydance's $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery for at least 14 days. Twelve states argue the merger would reduce competition in Hollywood, and a hearing on a longer freeze is set for August 3. WBD shares fell 3.8% — and Paramount owes a quarterly $0.25-per-share "ticking fee" if the deal isn't done by September 30.

💶 The EU fined Alibaba's AliExpress a record 550 million euros ($629 million) for failing to stop sales of illegal and counterfeit products. It's the largest penalty ever issued under the bloc's Digital Services Act, topping the 200 million euro fine handed to Temu earlier this year. AliExpress says it will appeal.

📊 Jamie Dimon says markets are underestimating risk — and he wouldn't buy stocks or long-dated Treasurys at today's prices. In an hourlong interview released late Monday, the JPMorgan CEO pointed to wars, US-China tensions and swelling deficits, arguing the 10-year yield should sit at 4–4.5% even if inflation fell to 2%.

🎬️ AMC posted the highest quarterly revenue in its 106-year history — $1.6 billion — plus a surprise profit. Adjusted earnings of 14 cents a share beat the 6-cent loss analysts expected, as US attendance jumped 12% on a blockbuster summer slate. The stock surged as CEO Adam Aron jabbed at "prognosticators of doom."

📈 Chip stocks bounced Monday after last week's slide into bear-market territory, led by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung. The rebound couldn't lift the broader market: the Dow fell 307 points (0.6%) and the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% as Iran and tariff worries weighed — with Alphabet and Tesla earnings looming Wednesday.

Andy Burnham became Britain's prime minister Monday (the country's seventh in a decade) and got a rough welcome from markets within hours.

After Burnham said he'd stick to the previous government's borrowing rules but would use "any flexibility" within them, investors read that as code for looser spending and sold UK government bonds (called gilts), driving the benchmark 10-year gilt yield up 8 basis points to 5.04% and the 30-year up 9 to 5.75%, its highest in two months.

The pound slipped too, trading around $1.34. Markets calmed only after Burnham named former defence secretary John Healey as chancellor (the UK's finance minister) a steadier pick than the more left-leaning names investors had feared all eyes now turn to Healey and what's at stake for UK markets.

Britain borrows at the highest rates in the G7, inflation is still above target, and the Iran war keeps pushing energy costs up, so there's almost no room for fiscal slippage before bond investors revolt, as they did in the 2022 Liz Truss mini-budget crisis.

Rising gilt yields mean higher borrowing costs for the government, and they bleed into mortgages and business loans across the UK economy.

One wrinkle: Healey quit the last government because it wouldn't spend more on defence, so his appointment may signal more spending overall, not less.

What to watch:

• Healey's first fiscal statement and whether Burnham puts numbers on his pledge to lift income-tax thresholds (an expensive promise if yields stay above 5%)

• Big finance is watching too: as Burnham took office, Jamie Dimon warned that an uncompetitive tax system means "capital leaves your country," and declined to recommit to JPMorgan's planned £3 billion London headquarters.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.