The Tariff Treadmill Speeds Up 🏃

Welcome back to the the Day Trading newsletter 📈 

Markets bounced back Wednesday as traders shook off the worst of the Iran anxiety and zeroed in on strong economic data.

The S&P snapped a three-session skid, Bitcoin ripped from $63K to $73K in four days, and after the bell, Broadcom dropped a jaw-dropping $100 billion AI chip revenue forecast.

There's a lot to unpack. Buckle up 👇️ 

📈 Broadcom crushed its fiscal Q1 with $19.3 billion in revenue, up 29% year-over-year, and AI revenue doubled. The real headline: CEO Hock Tan told analysts Broadcom has "line of sight" to exceed $100 billion in AI chip revenue alone by 2027. Stock jumped 5% after hours (CNBC)

🧑‍⚖️ A federal judge ordered U.S. Customs to begin refunding tariffs collected under the IEEPA emergency authority that the Supreme Court struck down last month. Thousands of businesses that sued are now in line to get their money back plus interest. A major legal setback for the White House's trade strategy (NYT)

💼 Private employers added just 63,000 jobs in February, per ADP, slightly above the 50,000 estimate. But January was revised down sharply from 22,000 to just 11,000 - the weakest reading in years. The labor market is cooling, and it's not subtle (CNBC)

🔼 The ISM Services PMI surged to 56.1 in February, a 3.5-year high and well above every economist estimate. Services are the backbone of the U.S. economy, and this reading says expansion is accelerating even as the manufacturing side struggles (ISM)

🛢️ Oil settled at $81.40 a barrel, flat but at its highest since January 2025 as the Iran conflict enters its fifth day. Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 Brent forecast by $10 to $76. Trump offered naval escorts and federal insurance for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz (Reuters)

💰️ Bitcoin surged past $73,000 on Wednesday, recovering sharply from a crash to $63,000 in the immediate aftermath of the Iran strikes. ETF inflows and rising open interest are driving the rally. Crypto stocks Strategy, Coinbase, and Robinhood jumped 8-15% (Bloomberg)

💉 Moderna soared 16% after settling all global patent litigation with Arbutus Biopharma and Genevant Sciences for $2.25 billion. The dispute centered on COVID-19 vaccine technology. The stock is now up 95% in 2026 and on track to snap a four-year losing streak (Investopedia)

📃 Trump officially sent Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chair to the Senate on Wednesday, one step closer to replacing Jerome Powell. Markets see Warsh as more rate-cut friendly, but confirmation is far from guaranteed with the Senate closely divided. (Reuters)

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed Wednesday that the administration will raise its temporary global import tariff from 10% to 15% sometime this week, using the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 150-day levy while the U.S. Trade Representative conducts investigations for more permanent duties.

This comes after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's original "Liberation Day" tariffs under the IEEPA, ruling the president overstepped his emergency powers. The 10% stopgap tariff went up immediately.

Now 15% is the new floor, and Bessent signaled tariffs could return to their prior levels within five months as the administration builds a legal framework that's harder to challenge.

For consumers, this means higher prices on virtually everything imported, from electronics to clothing to auto parts.

For businesses, it's another layer of cost uncertainty stacked on top of the Iran-driven energy shock.

And for the Fed, it's a nightmare: tariff-fueled inflation could keep rate cuts off the table just as the labor market softens.

The trade court ordering IEEPA refunds on the same day adds an ironic twist, the old tariffs are being unwound while new ones roll in.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.