The S&P's 9-week streak 📈

Welcome back to the Day Trading newsletter 📈

Last week belonged to the bulls…again.

Stocks closed Friday at fresh records, with falling oil, a blowout end to earnings season, and a relentless AI trade pushing the S&P 500 to its ninth straight weekly gain.

Let’s get into it 👇️ 

📆 Monday 6/1 — ISM Manufacturing PMI (10am ET): First major read on factory activity for the new month. A figure above 50 signals expansion; markets want to see whether tariffs and the oil spike are denting output.

📆 Tuesday 6/2 — JOLTS Job Openings (10am ET): April openings offer an early gauge of labor-market slack ahead of Friday's jobs report. A sharp drop would feed the slowdown narrative; resilience supports the no-cut camp.

📆 Wednesday 6/3 — ADP Private Payrolls (8:15am ET) & ISM Services PMI (10am ET): A double dose of data. ADP previews Friday's payrolls, while services PMI covers the largest slice of the economy. Watch the services prices component for inflation clues.

📆 Wednesday 6/3 — Broadcom fiscal Q2 earnings (after close, ~5pm ET): The AI-chip bellwether reports after the bell, with the Street looking for big custom-silicon and networking growth. After Dell and Snowflake, it's the next test of the AI-spending thesis.

📆 Friday 6/5 — May Jobs Report (8:30am ET): The week's headline event. After April's modest 115K gain, a hot number could cement rate-hike fears, while a weak print would revive hopes that the Fed has room to ease under new Chair Warsh.

🔼 Dell soared about 33% Friday, its best day on record, after a blowout quarter built on AI servers. The company reported fiscal Q1 revenue of $43.8 billion, up 88% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $4.86, with AI server revenue hitting $16.1 billion and a record $51.3 billion AI backlog. Dell raised full-year guidance to $165-$169 billion.

🔻 Gap and American Eagle were punished for weak guidance even as the broad market hit records. Gap shares tanked about 15% after the retailer slashed its full-year sales outlook, citing style missteps in dresses at Old Navy. American Eagle Outfitters fell roughly 10% after soft demand for women's bottoms dragged quarterly sales lower. Another reminder that the consumer remains choosy.

🛢️ Brent crude posted its worst month since the early days of the pandemic. The international benchmark fell more than 19% in May (its steepest monthly drop since March 2020) as traders bet on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire reopening the Strait of Hormuz. WTI settled Friday at $87.36 a barrel, down 1.73%, while Brent closed at $92.05.

📃 Trump moved closer to a final decision on an Iran ceasefire deal. The president said he would meet to make a "final determination" on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin nuclear talks. The framework requires Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted, toll-free traffic and to clear remaining mines. Terms are still awaiting sign-off from both sides.

🥇 Gold rebounded above $4,500 an ounce to close out the week. It climbed about 1% Friday to roughly $4,524, bouncing off a two-month low near $4,380 hit Thursday, after April's PCE inflation data landed broadly in line with expectations. Gold remains up sharply over the past year as a hedge against persistent inflation and geopolitical risk.

⛽️ Gas prices held near four-year highs heading into the summer driving season. The national average sat around $4.40 a gallon over the Memorial Day stretch (well above year-ago levels) as the spring's oil spike worked its way to the pump. AAA flagged the holiday weekend as the priciest in four years, though easing crude could bring modest relief if the Iran ceasefire holds.

The S&P 500 rose 0.22% Friday to close at a record 7,580.06, capping its ninth consecutive weekly gain.

That’s its longest weekly winning streak since late 2023.

The Dow climbed 363 points (0.72%) to 51,032.46 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% to 26,972.62, both also at records.

This is one of the most durable rallies in years, and it's being powered by a handful of forces working together.

1. The AI trade keeps minting winners: Dell's 33% Friday pop on monster server demand was just the latest in a string of blowout tech prints.

2. Q1 earnings season finished strong, with S&P 500 profits up roughly 15% year-over-year. It’s serving as proof that corporate America is still growing into these valuations rather than just inflating on hype.

3. Oil's steep slide on hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire has taken some pressure off inflation fears at the margin.

Some tension does seem to remain, however.

April's PCE inflation reading came in at 3.8% (the hottest since 2023) and markets are now pricing a real chance the Fed's next move is a hike, not a cut.

A market making new highs into rising rate-hike odds is unusual, and it tells you how much faith investors are putting in the AI growth story.

What to watch:

• Whether this rally can survive a reality check from the data. Friday brings the May jobs report, and a string of fresh reads on manufacturing, services, and hiring lands all week (more in Week Ahead below).

• Breadth, too. If the gains stay concentrated in a few AI names, the streak is more fragile than the headline number suggests.

• The bond market: with the 30-year Treasury yield hovering near 5% and the first Fed meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh set for June 16-17, any upside surprise in inflation or jobs could end the run quickly.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.