The Navy Just Blockaded Iran 🚢

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The two-week ceasefire lasted nine days. After peace talks collapsed in Islamabad on Sunday, the U.S. Navy moved Monday morning to blockade Iranian ports — and markets woke up Tuesday with oil above $100, futures under pressure, and a brand-new war premium to price in.

Let’s get into it 👇️ 

🛢️ WTI crude jumped roughly 7.9% to about $104 per barrel Monday and Brent rose about 7% to near $102, reversing most of last week's ceasefire-driven crash. Energy stocks surged in sympathy — Exxon gained more than 4% and Chevron added about 3.5% — while airlines and cruise operators that ripped on the ceasefire handed back a chunk of those gains. (CNBC)

🔼 Goldman reported Q1 EPS of $14.92 on revenue of $16.8 billion, both well ahead of consensus, as fixed-income and equities trading posted their strongest quarter in more than two years. The Iran conflict drove record volumes in oil, rates, and FX. Investment banking lagged as deal activity stalled. The stock gained about 3% premarket Tuesday. (Reuters)

💰️ JPMorgan is out before the bell with consensus EPS around $5.44 and revenue near $43.5 billion. After Goldman's war-quarter trading blowout, the focus shifts to Dimon's macro commentary, credit-loss reserves, and net interest income guidance as higher-for-longer rates collide with a renewed oil shock. The stock is flat premarket heading into the print. (WSJ)

📈 The March producer price index prints this morning and is the next major inflation read after CPI came in hot at 3.3%. Consensus is for a 0.5% monthly rise, but the blockade news and rebound in oil raise the risk of an upside surprise. A hot print would push Treasury yields higher — the 10-year is already pressing 4.5% — and reinforce the "rate-hikes-back-on-the-table" narrative from March's FOMC minutes. (BLS)

🏅 Spot gold jumped about 2.3% Monday to a new record above $4,920 per ounce as the blockade revived safe-haven demand and investors hedged against a renewed war premium. Silver gained roughly 3.4% and bitcoin rose above $74,000 in the overnight session as the risk-off trade spilled into alternative stores of value. (Bloomberg)

🔻 U.S. stocks reversed Friday's gains Monday, with the Dow falling 712 points (1.5%) to 47,221, the S&P 500 down 1.6% to 6,708, and the Nasdaq off 1.9% to 22,205. Travel, consumer discretionary, and semis led the decline, while energy was the only S&P sector to finish green. Volume ran about 20% above the 30-day average. (CNBC)

🏘️ March existing home sales fell 1.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, missing estimates and reflecting the five straight weeks of mortgage-rate increases that pushed the 30-year to 6.46%. Median prices held near $398,000. With rates poised to climb again on the oil shock, housing looks set for another soft stretch. (NAR)

🚘️ Tesla dropped roughly 6% Monday after Elon Musk said on X that Terafab's construction timeline could slip "several quarters" if the oil shock forces a capex reprioritization. Intel, which joined the project last week, slid about 4%. The reversal took some of the shine off last week's chip-deal rally and renewed questions about whether the $25 billion headline budget was ever realistic. (Bloomberg)

The U.S. Navy began halting all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports early Monday after weekend peace talks in Islamabad collapsed without a nuclear commitment from Tehran.

The Pentagon confirmed the blockade is indefinite.

Oil markets responded immediately: WTI crude surged roughly 7.9% to around $104 a barrel and Brent jumped about 7% to near $102, erasing most of the relief rally from last week's short-lived ceasefire.

This is the second major oil-supply shock in six weeks.

The five-week Strait of Hormuz closure in February and March had already pulled gasoline prices to multi-year highs and pushed March CPI to 3.3%. Iran exports roughly 1.5 million barrels of crude per day, and while those flows largely go to China and India, a full blockade threatens to remove that supply from the global market entirely — exactly the kind of disruption that pushes marginal buyers into more expensive alternatives and drags the entire price curve higher.

CNBC reported the blockade followed a 21-hour negotiation breakdown in Islamabad over Iran's refusal to accept a non-nuclear commitment — the same sticking point that ended the ceasefire window.

The market implications go well beyond energy.

Airlines, cruise lines, and transport stocks that ripped last week on the ceasefire are likely to give back those gains. Bond yields are expected to climb as inflation expectations reset higher, and the Fed's "rate-hikes-back-on-the-table" signal from the March FOMC minutes suddenly carries a lot more weight.

Consumer sentiment, already at a record low of 47.6, has nowhere good to go from here.

What to watch: whether China or India formally protest the blockade, whether Iran retaliates against U.S. or allied shipping in the Gulf, and how Friday's retail sales print reads after a month where gasoline alone jumped 21%.

The Fed's next meeting is April 28-29 — and if oil holds above $100, that calculus gets very hard, very fast.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.