The Fed meets in the fog of war ☁️

Welcome back to the Day Trading newsletter 📈

Markets bounced hard Monday, but the relief may be short-lived.

Oil is surging again, Nvidia just dropped a $1 trillion order projection at GTC, and the Fed starts its two-day meeting tomorrow with the hardest macro backdrop since the pandemic.

Buckle up 👇️ 

🤑 Jensen Huang doubled Nvidia's order projection to $1 trillion through 2027 at GTC Monday. He unveiled the Groq 3 LPU (the first chip from Nvidia's $20 billion Groq acquisition) and showed off Vera Rubin, shipping later this year with 10x performance per watt over Blackwell. Stock rose about 2% (CNBC)

🛢️ Oil whipsawed Monday after Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC the U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent fell 2.8% to around $100. But Tuesday morning it surged back above $103 after renewed Iranian attacks on UAE energy infrastructure. The relief trade lasted about 12 hours (CNBC)

🛒 Dollar Tree beat Q4 estimates with $2.56 EPS on $5.5 billion in revenue, up 9% year-over-year. The stock jumped 7.5% even though forward guidance was cautious. The multi-price "3.0" strategy is working as inflation-squeezed consumers trade down (Yahoo Finance)

📈 Bitcoin reclaimed $74,500 Monday in a 4% rally, continuing to decouple from equity volatility. BTC has held the $70-74K range for weeks despite the oil shock and equity sell-off. Traders are watching $74K as the breakout level — a decisive move above could trigger a run toward $80K (CoinDesk)

💵 The S&P 500 bounced 1% off its 2026 low Monday as oil pulled back from Friday's $103+ highs. The Dow gained 381 points and the Nasdaq rose 1%. But with Brent surging again above $103 Tuesday morning on renewed Iran-UAE hostilities, the respite may already be over (CNBC)

The Fed kicks off its two-day meeting tomorrow with rates expected to hold at 3.50-3.75%, but the real story is the updated dot plot and Powell's press conference.

With oil near $100, inflation stuck a point above target, and the Iran conflict disrupting a fifth of global oil supply, some analysts are now debating something unthinkable weeks ago: could the Fed actually hike in 2026?

Deutsche Bank's Matthew Luzzetti flagged the possibility last week, writing that a question "almost unthinkable two weeks ago is now being more heavily debated."

Markets are pricing a 25% chance of a rate increase this year - up from essentially zero before the war began.

The tension between slowing growth and rising prices puts Powell in a near impossible position.

The dot plot will show whether FOMC members still see two cuts this year or have shifted to one (or zero).

Q4 GDP was just revised down to 0.7%, core PCE is stuck at 3.1%, and oil has jumped 50% in two weeks.

This is the closest thing to a stagflation setup since 2022.

How Powell frames it (transitory disruption or structural risk) will set the tone for markets through Q2.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.