The Fed Has a New Boss 🏦

Welcome back to the the Day Trading newsletter 📈 

What a week.

Gold had its worst crash since 1983, silver just posted its worst single day ever, and Trump dropped a bombshell Fed Chair nomination that has markets guessing.

We're breaking down all of it, plus the 5 events you need on your radar for the week ahead 👇️ 

📆 Monday 2/2 — ISM Manufacturing PMI (10am ET): First read on factory activity under the new policy backdrop. Expansion above 50 signals resilience.

📆 Monday 2/2 — Palantir Earnings: AI software bellwether. Forward P/E of 151 means guidance must be flawless. Watch government contract commentary.

📆 Tuesday 2/3 — AMD Earnings: Critical read on continuing AI chip demand. Data center revenue is the number to watch.

📆 Wednesday 2/4 — ISM Services PMI (10am ET): Services are 70% of the economy. This matters more than manufacturing.

📆 Friday 2/6 — January Jobs Report (8:30am ET): THE event of the week. Strong jobs = fewer rate cuts. Weak jobs = recession fears. Either way, expect volatility.

🥇 Precious metals got obliterated Friday. Gold plunged 12% from its $5,594 record high to below $4,900 (the steepest single-day drop in 42 years). Silver collapsed 30%, its worst session on record. MKS PAMP's Nicky Shiels called January 2026 "the most volatile month in precious metals history." The trigger seemed to be Warsh's nomination and a stronger dollar. Downside targets to watch: $4,600 gold, $80 silver per MKS. If you're long, this is your gut-check moment (Reuters)

📉 Microsoft dropped 10% after reporting massive AI capex but only a modest revenue beat. The message from Wall Street: show us the ROI. With AMD earnings Tuesday, investors will be watching closely for signs that AI hardware demand is holding up post-DeepSeek. The Chinese AI startup's efficiency breakthrough has investors questioning whether Big Tech's spending binge is sustainable. AMD's guidance on data center revenue will be the tell (CNBC)

😿 Bitcoin slides below $78k as the Strategy-fueled rally runs out of buyers. BTC dropped as low as $75,700 Saturday—its lowest since April—erasing $111B from total crypto market cap in 24 hours. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says realized cap has flatlined, meaning no fresh capital is flowing in. Early holders who rode the ETF and Saylor-fueled run to $100k are now taking profits, and there's no one left to buy the dip. Strategy's massive bitcoin stack briefly went underwater below $76k, though no forced selling is imminent. Ju's call: expect a prolonged sideways grind, not a V-shaped recovery (Coindesk)

🛢️ Crude oil held near its highest levels since July as Trump weighs military options against Iran (including targeted strikes on security forces and leadership). Brent closed the week at $70.69. Iran pumps ~3M barrels/day for OPEC, so any supply disruption would be material. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production pause through March. Geopolitical premium is back in oil. Watch $72 Brent as resistance. A break above could signal more upside (Reuters)

Donald Trump just handed the keys to the world's most powerful central bank to Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor with a reputation for hawkish discipline. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will replace Jerome Powell in May, and markets are already pricing in the shift.

Warsh's playbook is clear: he wants a smaller Fed balance sheet. For over a decade, the Fed's balance sheet expansion (buying bonds to inject liquidity) has been rocket fuel for risk assets. Crypto, growth stocks, and gold all rode that wave. Warsh wants to reverse it.

Here's the paradox: Trump demands lower interest rates, but Warsh's balance sheet reduction would tighten financial conditions even if rates stay flat. That's why gold just had its worst day since 1983 and Bitcoin is bleeding.

The market currently prices two rate cuts in 2026, with the first in June, after Warsh takes over. But don't assume continuity. Warsh has said Trump is "right to press for cuts," signaling he may bend to political pressure. The question is how much.

Expect continued volatility in rate-sensitive assets. If you're long gold or crypto, it might be a good idea to tighten your stops. If you're eyeing financials, a hawkish Fed chair historically benefits banks.

And watch Treasury auctions closely. Warsh's balance sheet rhetoric will move the long end.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.