The biggest IPO ever? 🚀

Welcome back to the Day Trading newsletter 📈

A record midweek and a sharp Friday hangover.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,408.50, the Dow at 49,526.17 (down 537 points on the day), and the Nasdaq at 26,225.14 - all three off more than a full percent as a bigger-than-feared inflation print, a thin Trump-Xi summit, and a 10-year Treasury yield ripping to 4.58% combined to take the air out of the rally.

Even with Friday's slide, the S&P and Nasdaq still finished the week up roughly 0.3%.

The bigger story is what's coming next: SpaceX is racing toward the largest IPO in history, and the prospectus could land as early as this week.

Let’s get into it 👇️ 

📆 Tuesday 5/19 — Home Depot Q1 earnings (9 AM ET): First big-box read on the housing-adjacent consumer with mortgage rates still elevated. Comparable-sales guide and pro-customer commentary are the keys.

📆 Wednesday 5/20 — SpaceX could publicly file its S-1: Reuters reporting points to as early as Wednesday. The document will pin down the actual share count, price range, and lockup terms — and the governance fight will go from anonymous letters to publicly disclosed risk factors.

📆 Wednesday 5/20 — FOMC April meeting minutes (2 PM ET): The April 28-29 meeting had three dissents. Watch for any language hinting at how many committee members are now open to hikes rather than cuts.

📆 Wednesday 5/20 — Nvidia Q1 FY27 earnings (after-close): Consensus expects $78.76 billion in revenue and $1.74 EPS. Blackwell ramp commentary and any update on China export licensing will move the entire AI complex into Thursday.

📆 Thursday 5/21 — Walmart Q1 earnings + housing starts + jobless claims (pre-market): The most consumer-data-dense morning of the month. Walmart's grocery-versus-discretionary mix is the cleanest tariff and inflation tell in retail.

🔼 AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems exploded 68% on its Nasdaq debut Thursday, closing at $311.07 after pricing its IPO at $185 a share. The company sold 30 million shares to raise $5.55 billion — the largest US tech IPO since Uber's 2019 debut — and ended Thursday with a market cap near $95 billion. Reality bit on Friday: CBRS gave back roughly 10% on its first full session as investors balked at the valuation and the heavy OpenAI customer concentration baked into the price.

✈️ Trump's two-day Beijing summit with Xi Jinping wrapped Friday with no major breakthroughs and a single concrete deal: a 200-jet Boeing order — well short of the 500-aircraft package negotiators had been working on. IBA pegged the order value at $17–19 billion, assuming roughly 80% 737 MAX. Boeing shares fell 4.1% on the announcement. No progress was made on Nvidia chip exports, the Iran war, or Taiwan.

🔻 Stocks suffered their worst session in weeks Friday, with the Dow falling 537 points (-1.07%), the S&P 500 dropping 1.24%, and the Nasdaq sliding 1.54% as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.58% — its highest level in more than a year. The trigger was a combination of underwhelming summit takeaways, rising oil, and growing acceptance that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates this year.

💵 Bitcoin slid below $77,000 over the weekend, falling sharply from Thursday's high near $82,000 as rising yields and persistent inflation killed any remaining hope of a near-term Fed cut. Ether and the broader crypto complex sold off in sympathy. The Senate Banking Committee voted Thursday to advance the CLARITY Act to the full Senate — a structural win for the industry — but it did little to stem the bleed on price.

🛢️ Oil posted its biggest weekly gain in months as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, with WTI climbing about 10% on the week to roughly $103 a barrel and Brent up roughly 8% near $108. The IEA warned global oil inventories are draining at a record pace of about 4 million barrels a day and said the market could stay materially undersupplied through October even if the Iran conflict ends next month. OPEC+ added just 188,000 bpd at its May 3 meeting.

🧑‍⚖️ Kevin Warsh took the gavel as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve on Friday, and markets immediately priced out the rest of his runway for cuts. The CME FedWatch tool now shows no more than one cut for all of 2026, and 56 of 103 economists polled by Reuters expect rates to hold steady through September. Warsh's first FOMC meeting is June 16-17 — and given hot April CPI (3.8%) and PPI (6.0%), even one cut looks like a stretch.

Elon Musk's rocket-and-satellite empire is accelerating its IPO timeline.

Reuters reported late Thursday that SpaceX is preparing to publicly file its prospectus as early as Wednesday, with a roadshow kicking off June 4, pricing slated for June 11, and a trading debut on the Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPCX.

The company confidentially filed in April, and bankers are now targeting a raise of up to $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, numbers that would shatter every record in the book.

The current biggest-IPO-ever crown belongs to Saudi Aramco, which raised $29.4 billion at a $1.7 trillion valuation in December 2019.

SpaceX is targeting a raise nearly three times that size at a slightly higher valuation.

SpaceX claimed more than 80% of global rocket launches last year, has over 10,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, grew 2025 revenue 30% to $18.7 billion, and saw Starlink's profit more than double to $4.4 billion.

The company also swung to a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 after absorbing $6.4 billion of losses from its xAI merger, and Musk has proposed an unprecedented governance structure: super-voting Class B shares, mandatory arbitration, and a setup where the only person who can fire him as CEO is himself. 

The biggest US public pension systems sent a letter this week opposing what they called "the most management-favorable governance structure ever brought to the U.S. public markets at this scale."

What to watch: The S-1 itself if it lands this week - risk factors, lockup terms, dilution, and the exact size and price range.

Beyond the document, keep an eye on:

• How the broader market digests roughly $70+ billion of new equity issuance hitting during an Iran-war oil shock and a Fed leadership transition

• Whether the governance pushback grows teeth before pricing on June 11

• The read-across to Starlink-exposed names (T-Mobile, Iridium) and launch competitors (Rocket Lab, Astra)

If the deal prices and trades clean, expect a wave of held-back unicorns (Stripe, Databricks, Anthropic) to start rethinking their own timelines.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.