Oil shoots back to $100 🛢️

Welcome back to the the Day Trading newsletter 📈 

Oil shot back above $100 and the world's energy watchdog just pulled the emergency brake. It's geopolitics vs. inflation vs. rate cuts, and right now nobody's winning.

Let's get into it 👇

📈 February CPI came in at 2.4% year-over-year, matching expectations and holding steady from January. Core inflation hit 2.5%. The catch: this is all pre-war data. With oil spiking, March numbers will tell a very different story (CNBC)

🔼 Oracle surged 9% after crushing Q3 earnings on massive AI demand. Revenue and EPS both grew over 20%, and the company's performance obligations ballooned to $553 billion with a $29 billion sequential backlog increase (Reuters)

🔻 Campbell's slumped 7% after missing Q2 estimates and slashing full-year guidance. Snack sales tanked and adjusted EPS fell 31% year-over-year, putting the consumer staple under real pressure (Investopedia)

🚗 Tesla's delivery slide may stretch to a third consecutive year, according to Reuters. Wall Street had expected a recovery in 2026, but deteriorating demand and brand damage from the Musk backlash are changing forecasts fast (Reuters)

📉 Adobe reports Q1 earnings after the bell today with the stock already down 22% year-to-date. Options traders are pricing in a nearly 8% move, making this a key test for whether AI tools are actually translating into revenue growth (TipRanks)

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The International Energy Agency agreed to its largest-ever coordinated oil release: 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles across all 32 member nations.

The U.S. is contributing 172 million barrels, the biggest single-country draw since the SPR was created in 1975. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called it a "wartime measure to protect American consumers."

Here's the problem: it doesn’t seem to be working.

Oil surged another 5% despite the announcement, with crude hitting $93.62 as Iran's IRGC doubled down on its Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran's military spokesperson warned to "get ready for $200 oil," and three more foreign ships were attacked overnight. The U.S. Navy admitted it's not yet ready to escort tankers through the strait.

The Strait handles ~20% of global oil supply.

Qatar has already declared force majeure on gas contracts. Japan, which gets 70% of its Middle Eastern oil through the strait, is tapping its own reserves.

Yesterday's CPI showed inflation steady at 2.4% before the war, but with oil near $100, the Fed's rate-cut timeline just got torched.

Energy stocks (XLE, XOP) are the clear winners; everything else is bracing for impact.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.