NVIDIA's $66B question 👀

Welcome back to the the Day Trading newsletter 📈 

The Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs, he immediately slapped a new 15% global levy, GDP came in ice cold at 1.4%, and NVIDIA reports Wednesday in what might be the most consequential earnings call of the year.

Oh, and the State of the Union is Tuesday night.

Buckle up, this week is loaded 👀 

Let’s get into it 👇️ 

📆 Tuesday - 2/24: Trump State of the Union address

📆 Wednesday - 2/25: Nvidia earnings (after-market); Lowe's earnings (pre-market); Salesforce earnings; TJX Companies earnings

📆 Thursday - 2/26: Consumer spending data

🏦 The Supreme Court killed Trump's tariffs, then he brought them back. In a landmark 6-3 ruling Friday, SCOTUS struck down Trump's sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs, saying he exceeded his authority under IEEPA. Markets rallied on the news, but by Saturday, Trump announced a new 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act. That's the legal max under that statute, and it's "temporary" (150 days). If you thought tariff uncertainty was over, think again (Reuters)

📉 Q4 GDP came in at just 1.4%, badly missing estimates. The economy grew at roughly a third of Q3's 4.4% pace, and well below the 2.5% consensus. The government shutdown distorted the number (furloughed workers, disrupted data collection), but it's still ugly on the surface. Full-year 2025 growth landed at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024. The soft-landing narrative just got a stress test (CNN)

🎤 Trump delivers the State of the Union on Tuesday night. After the tariff ruling and GDP miss, expect fireworks. He's likely to push his trade agenda hard and could announce new economic measures. Markets tend to be volatile around SOTU, especially when tariffs and Fed policy are top of mind. Watch for sector-specific callouts (energy, defense, AI infrastructure) (PBS)

🪙 Bitcoin ETFs just posted five straight weeks of outflows — the longest streak since March 2025. Over $8.5B has left since October, with $410M pulled in a single day on Feb 12. BTC is hovering around $68K, stuck in a $66-70K range with no fresh buying pressure. Institutional conviction is being tested. Until that outflow trend reverses, the path of least resistance is sideways-to-down (The Block)

Wednesday after the bell, NVIDIA reports its fiscal Q4, and the stakes have rarely been higher for a single earnings call.

Here's the setup:

• Wall Street expects roughly $65.6 billion in revenue, a 65% jump from last year. That's more revenue in one quarter than NVIDIA did in all of fiscal 2024.

• The Blackwell GPU platform is ramping hard, with CEO Jensen Huang describing demand as "off the charts."

• The company has a reported $350 billion pipeline of Blackwell and Rubin orders stretching through 2026.

But this isn't just about Nvidia. It's about the entire AI narrative.

Meta just committed $135 billion to AI infrastructure this year. Big Tech collectively is spending $630B+ on AI capex. If Nvidia's guidance signals any cooling in that spend, the ripple effects hit every AI-adjacent name from AMD to Vertiv to Arista.

The big question is the company’s strategy for China. Nvidia's data center revenue from China remains at zero due to export controls. That's a huge addressable market sitting at $0.

Any signal on workarounds, licensing changes, or new geographies will be important.

Meanwhile, the macro backdrop is messy. GDP just disappointed, tariffs are back (15% global), and the State of the Union could inject more volatility Tuesday night (the day before Nvidia reports). Traders should expect elevated implied volatility and position accordingly.

The consensus view is that Nvidia beats. The question is whether guidance clears the sky-high bar. If it does, expect the AI trade to reignite. If it doesn't, everything that rode the AI wave gets repriced.

This is the week's (and maybe the quarter's) biggest event.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.