It's Warsh's Fed now 🏦

Welcome back to the Day Trading newsletter 📈

Stocks are riding a three-day high after the U.S.–Iran ceasefire deal sent oil tumbling and risk appetite soaring.

The Dow closed at a record Monday. Now the market turns to Washington, where the Fed wraps a two-day meeting Wednesday and almost nobody expects rates to move.

Let’s get into it 👇️ 

📊 U.S. stocks closed at record highs Monday as the U.S.–Iran ceasefire deal and SpaceX's surging shares powered a three-day rally. The Dow finished at a record 51,671.03, up about 469 points (0.9%), the S&P 500 rose 1.65% to 7,554.29, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.07% to 26,683.94 (its best day since March 31).

🛢️ Oil tumbled to its lowest level since March after the U.S. and Iran finalized the wording of a deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. crude fell about 4.8% to roughly $80.75 a barrel and Brent slid to about $83.17, with a formal signing ceremony set for Switzerland on Friday. The strait carries about a fifth of the world's oil.

💵 BlackRock launched its iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF (ticker BITA) Tuesday, the first yield-focused Bitcoin fund from a major issuer. The fund sells call options against Bitcoin exposure to target a 15%–25% annual payout at a 0.65% fee, beating a similar Goldman Sachs product to market. The yield isn't guaranteed, and downside price risk remains.

🥇 Gold climbed back above $4,300 an ounce, extending gains for a third straight session. Spot gold traded near $4,345 Monday, up from about $4,187 on Friday, as falling Treasury yields lowered the cost of holding an asset that pays no interest. The move reverses a two-week slide and comes just ahead of the Fed's decision.

💰️ Bitcoin held steady near $66,000 as crypto stabilized ahead of the Fed meeting. The token traded around $66,300 Tuesday, recovering from a post-inflation wobble last week and finding a floor after a 10% downward mining-difficulty adjustment (the second-largest of 2026). Traders are watching $67,000 as overhead resistance.

🚀 SpaceX extended its post-IPO surge, with shares trading near $178 Monday after closing Friday's debut session at $160.95. The rocket maker's market value has pushed above $2.3 trillion, cementing it among the most valuable U.S. public companies just days after the largest IPO on record. Shares were indicated up another 9% in Tuesday's premarket.

📉 The 10-year Treasury yield eased to about 4.43% as the Iran deal drained the war-risk premium from markets. Falling oil prices cooled near-term inflation fears, pulling yields lower across the curve. The drop offers modest relief for mortgage and borrowing costs, but bonds are bracing for Wednesday's Fed projections.

🔼 Global markets rallied alongside Wall Street, with Japan's Nikkei 225 jumping about 5.5% and South Korea's Kospi up as much as 5.7% Monday. The surge tracked relief over the U.S.–Iran ceasefire and the prospect of restored shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which had been largely closed since the conflict began in late February.

The Federal Reserve's policy committee began its two-day meeting Tuesday and will announce its decision Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a 2:30 p.m. press conference.

Futures markets put the odds of no change at roughly 98%, which would leave the benchmark rate parked at 3.50%–3.75% for a third straight meeting.

So if the rate is a foregone conclusion, why does this meeting matter?

Because it's a quarterly projection meeting (the Fed will release a fresh "dot plot," the chart showing where each official expects rates to go) and it's the first meeting run by new Chair Kevin Warsh, who has openly criticized how the Fed communicates.

Back in March, the Fed's median forecast still penciled in two rate cuts for 2026.

After a hot May inflation report, that path looks shaky. Traders worry the Fed could quietly erase those cuts from the dot plot.

That would be a "hawkish hold": rates unchanged on the surface, but a signal that cheaper money isn't coming, which tends to weigh on stocks, gold, and crypto.

Warsh adds a wild card. He wants what he's called "regime change" in how the Fed forecasts and talks to markets, so his debut press conference will be parsed for any shift in tone.

What to watch:

• The dot plot is the tell. If the 2026 median shows zero cuts (or floats a hike), expect a jolt.

• Watch Warsh's language for how much weight he puts on May's inflation surprise versus a slowing economy.

• May retail sales land Wednesday morning, hours before the decision. A hot or cold number could color how markets hear him.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.