Iran Ceasefire on "Massive Life Support" 🛢️

Welcome back to the Day Trading newsletter 📈

Stocks shrugged off another oil pop on Monday, the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both notched fresh record closes even as Brent ripped back above $104.

But this morning the energy story is doing the driving again: President Trump publicly buried Iran's latest peace offer Monday, and the rates market is starting to price the war lasting deep into summer.

Let’s get into it 👇️ 

🧑‍⚖️ The Senate voted 49-44 on Monday afternoon to invoke cloture on Kevin Warsh's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, clearing the first of a series of procedural votes this week. Sens. John Fetterman (Pa.) and Chris Coons (Del.) were the only Democrats to back the motion. A separate vote on Warsh's chairmanship is expected this week. Powell's term as chair ends Friday. (Roll Call)

🔋 Constellation Energy delivered adjusted EPS of $2.74 on revenue of $11.12 billion, blowing past consensus on both lines, and reaffirmed full-year guidance of $11–$12 per share. Revenue jumped 64% YoY, driven by the January Calpine acquisition that made CEG the largest private-sector power producer in the world. Management reiterated a 20%+ adjusted-base-EPS growth target through 2029. Shares rose ~4% premarket. (Investing.com)

💉 Hims & Hers posted Q1 revenue of $608 million, up 4% YoY but short of the $616 million consensus, and a wider-than-expected loss tied to inventory write-downs from its GLP-1 strategy pivot. Subscribers grew 9% to ~2.6 million. The company raised full-year guidance to $2.8–$3.0 billion in revenue and $275–$350 million in adjusted EBITDA. Shares were volatile after hours, swinging between modest gains and an 8%+ drop. (Yahoo Finance)

Bitcoin slipped about 1% to roughly $80,400 on Tuesday morning trading after April CPI hit a hot 3.8% YoY, giving back most of Monday's rally that had taken BTC to its strongest open ($82,164) since January 31. Ethereum fell harder, off 3% to $2,260. Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) has still pulled in about $194 million in cumulative inflows since its April 8 launch with zero net-outflow days, and Thursday's Senate Banking Committee hearing on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is the next catalyst on traders' radar. (Yahoo Finance)

✈️ President Trump departs for Beijing this week for a May 14–15 state visit with Xi Jinping, his first to China this term and one that was originally scheduled for April before the Iran war pushed it back. On the table: a fresh round of US agricultural and energy purchases, AI chip export restrictions, and a possible Boeing order. A CEO delegation including Boeing and Mastercard is reportedly traveling with him. (CNBC)

⛽️ AAA's Monday survey put the national average price of regular unleaded at $4.52 a gallon. That’s roughly 39 cents above a month ago and $1.39 above year-ago levels, the highest pump price since 2022. California ($6.15) and Washington ($5.76) again topped the table, while Oklahoma ($3.94) and Mississippi ($3.98) held the lows. The number underscores how directly Hormuz risk has translated into a household-budget line item. (AAA)

What happened: After spending the weekend dismissing Iran's counterproposal as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" in a Sunday Truth Social post, President Trump told reporters Monday afternoon that the month-old US-Iran ceasefire is "on massive life support, where the doctor walks in and says, 'Sir, your loved one has approximately a 1% chance of living.'"

Brent crude jumped nearly 3% to settle at $104.21 a barrel and WTI rose nearly 3% to close at $98.07, snapping back from the prior week's "peace optimism" slide. 

Trump said he was actively reconsidering restarting "Project Freedom," the suspended US naval-escort program for tankers in the Gulf, and warned the bombing campaign could resume.

This is the first real signal in a month that the off-ramp toward a deal has narrowed materially, and the market is now pricing the war as a sustained-not-spike risk.

Kalshi traders pushed the odds of the national gasoline average exceeding $5/gallon this year to 62%, up 22 percentage points in 24 hours, and bets on gas topping $5.60/gallon got serious volume for the first time.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned on the company's earnings call Monday that the oil market won't normalize until 2027 if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed past mid-June, with the global market losing roughly 100 million barrels of supply every week the chokepoint is jammed.

That cascade (higher crude, higher gas, stickier inflation, fewer Fed cuts) is the bear case incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh now inherits on his first day.

What to watch: Any Iranian response to Trump's rejection, the Senate's final confirmation vote on Warsh, and whether Project Freedom actually restarts. The OVX (oil volatility index) closing above its February war-shock highs would be the cleanest tape-read on whether traders are flipping from "spike" to "regime."

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.