Forget the rate decision, watch the dot plot 📈

Welcome back to the Day Trading newsletter 📈

Markets posted their third straight weekly decline, the S&P 500 hit its 2026 low, oil is flirting with $100, and the Fed meets Wednesday with the entire world watching Powell's last few press conferences.

This week is absolutely loaded. Let's get into it 👇

• Monday - 3/16: Nvidia GTC keynote (11 AM PT); Industrial production (Feb); NAHB Housing Market Index (March)

• Wednesday - 3/18: Micron earnings (after-market); FOMC rate decision (2:00 PM ET); Powell press conference (2:30 PM ET); PPI (Feb); Dot plot + economic projections

• Thursday - 3/19: FedEx earnings (after-market); Accenture earnings; Initial jobless claims; Philly Fed Manufacturing; New home sales (Jan)

• Friday - 3/20: End-of-week rebalancing; GTC wraps up

🛢️ Oil crossed $100 and doesn’t seem like it’s coming back down anytime soon. Brent crude settled at $103.86 on Friday (up nearly 3% on the day and 11% on the week) as Iran's Supreme Leader pledged to maintain the Strait of Hormuz blockade. WTI finished at $98.71. The IEA released a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves and it barely moved the needle. Iran's IRGC says "not a litre of oil" will pass through the strait. If you're trading energy, this isn't a spike. It's a regime change in pricing (Reuters)

🤖 Nvidia's GTC kicks off, and Jensen Huang’s keynote is the one to watch. This is Nvidia's biggest event of the year, running through Thursday in San Jose. Expect announcements on next-gen AI infrastructure, Rubin architecture updates, and partnerships with Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla. The stock is trading near $183, about 11.5% below its October all-time high. With AI stocks under pressure from the broader sell-off, GTC could be the catalyst that reminds the market why these companies are spending $630B+ on AI this year (TechCrunch)

💾 Micron reports Wednesday. Wall Street expects a monster quarter. Revenue is expected at ~$19.1B (up 137% YoY) with EPS around $8.60 (up 450%+). The AI memory boom has quadrupled Micron's stock over the past year. But AI names have been getting punished lately, so even a beat might not be enough if guidance doesn't blow the doors off. This is the next read on whether AI demand is still accelerating or plateauing (Motley Fool)

₿ Bitcoin holding $72K despite everything, and that's actually bullish. While equities hit 2026 lows and oil dominates headlines, BTC has quietly held the $70-72K range for weeks. It's acting more like digital gold than a risk asset right now. The Iran conflict hasn't broken it, the equity sell-off hasn't broken it. If the Fed signals dovishness Wednesday or GTC reignites the AI narrative, crypto could catch a bid. Watch $72.8K as the level to break for upside momentum (Yahoo Finance)

Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, the Federal Reserve delivers its March rate decision — and for the first time in months, the decision itself isn't the story. Everyone expects they're holding at 3.50-3.75%.

The real event is the dot plot and Powell's press conference.

Here's the dilemma: Before the Iran conflict erupted on February 28, the Fed was on a clear path.

Inflation was cooling (slowly), the labor market was softening, and markets expected two rate cuts this year. Then oil went from $67 to $100+ in two weeks.

That changes the calculus entirely. Higher energy prices are simultaneously inflationary AND recessionary. They push up costs for consumers and businesses while draining spending power from the economy. Q4 GDP was just revised down to 0.7% growth — half the prior reading.

Core PCE is stuck at 3.1%. The Fed is staring at stagflation risk for the first time since 2022.

The dot plot will tell us whether FOMC members have shifted from two projected cuts to one, or even zero. Markets currently price a 92%+ probability of a hold, with the first cut not expected until at least June.

If the dots signal just one cut for 2026, expect a sharp reaction in bonds and equities.

Then there's Powell himself. This could be his second-to-last press conference before Kevin Warsh takes over as chair in May. Powell has navigated pandemic inflation, a banking crisis, and now a war. How he frames the oil shock — transitory disruption or structural risk — will set the tone for markets through Q2.

The setup: If Powell leans dovish (acknowledging growth risks, keeping the door open for cuts), stocks could rally hard off 2026 lows. If he leans hawkish (emphasizing inflation risk from oil), the sell-off extends. Either way, Wednesday is the week's pivot point.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.