Apple's $100B Encore 🍏

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A reality check after April's record run: Iran attacked the UAE, oil ripped 6%, the Dow shed 557 points, and the long bond yield punched through 5%.

The good news? Apple's blowout last week is still doing the heavy lifting on the bull case, and the Q3 guide is the real story.

Let’s get into it 👇️ 

💥 Iran fired ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates Monday, the first direct strike on UAE soil since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire began in April. The UAE said its air defenses engaged 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles and four drones, with three "moderate injuries" reported. Iran also struck the Port of Fujairah and U.S. forces sank six Iranian small boats in the Strait of Hormuz. (CNBC)

🛢️ Brent crude jumped nearly 6% to settle at $114.44 a barrel and WTI rose 4.4% to $106.42 after the UAE strikes, kicking the Dow down 557 points (-1.13%) to 48,941.90. The S&P 500 slipped 0.41% to 7,200.75 and the Nasdaq lost 0.19% to 25,067.80, retreating from Friday's record. Energy was the only S&P sector that finished higher. (CNBC)

🔼 Palantir popped on Q1 results, with revenue jumping 85% year over year to $1.63 billion (its fastest growth since the 2020 IPO) and adjusted EPS of 33 cents beating the 28-cent consensus. CEO Alex Karp's team raised full-year revenue guidance to $7.65–$7.66 billion (up 71%) versus the $7.27 billion Street estimate. Shares rose 1.5% in afterhours trading to $147.83. (CNBC)

📈 Long-end Treasury yields ripped higher on Iran-driven inflation worries, with the 30-year bond yield gaining more than 5 basis points to 5.021% — back above the psychologically important 5% line. The 10-year added 6 basis points to 4.442% and the 2-year climbed to 3.954%. Bond traders read the oil spike as a fresh inflation pulse the Fed can't easily ignore ahead of Warsh's first FOMC. (CNBC)

🔻 Gold surprisingly fell 1.4% Monday to a session low of $4,560 — its first sub-$4,580 print in more than five weeks — even as Iran attacked the UAE. Silver also slipped on a firmer dollar (DXY held above 98) and rising real yields, which neutralized the usual safe-haven bid. Both metals are still up sharply year to date but are now testing key short-term support levels. (Fortune)

💵 Bitcoin pushed back above $80,000 Tuesday morning, reaching $81,286 (its highest level since January) after closing Monday at $78,975 in the Iran-driven risk-off tape. Ether also firmed up overnight. The bid follows a 5%+ five-day move and signals crypto is shrugging off the Hormuz headlines that hit equities and oil-sensitive long bonds Monday. (Yahoo Finance)

Apple posted its best March quarter ever last Thursday after the close, with revenue of $111.2 billion (up 17% year over year) and diluted EPS of $2.01 (up 22%).

Both numbers cleared Wall Street. Analysts had penciled in roughly $109.7 billion in revenue and $1.95 EPS.

The headline driver was the iPhone, which generated a March-quarter record $56.99 billion in revenue, up 22% year over year on what Tim Cook called "extraordinary demand" for the iPhone 17 lineup.

• Services hit an all-time high of $30.98 billion (+16%)

• Mac was $8.4 billion

• iPad hit $6.9 billion

• And Wearables/Home reached $7.9 billion.

The board authorized another $100 billion in stock buybacks and lifted the dividend 4% to $0.27.

But the real eye-opener was forward guidance: CFO Kevan Parekh told analysts to expect 14–17% revenue growth in the June quarter (well ahead of the Street's 9–10% consensus).

This is the cleanest signal yet that the iPhone 17 cycle isn't a one-quarter pop. 

Apple's own guide implies the upgrade wave keeps compounding into the back half of fiscal 2026. The $100 billion buyback authorization, layered on top of the program already running, takes Apple's share-count compression machine to roughly half a trillion dollars in cumulative authorizations across the past several years.

With $111 billion in quarterly revenue and Services running at a $124 billion annualized clip, the company is throwing off the kind of cash that lets it absorb every macro shock that's hit since January (Iran, tariffs, Fed drama) without breaking stride.

It also means Apple is a primary reason the Mag 7 trade hasn't cracked despite Monday's selloff.

What to watch: AMD reports tonight after the close. Its data-center read will tell us whether the AI capex cycle Apple is implicitly backstopping is still expanding.

Then watch whether Apple's late-week bid returns once Iran headlines fade; the stock has now given back some of Friday's pop, and the technical setup needs to hold the $275 level to keep the breakout intact.

Longer term, the September CEO handoff to John Ternus is the next event-risk catalyst. Cook's last earnings call as CEO is set for late July.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.