Americans have never felt this bad about the economy 📉

Welcome back to the Day Trading newsletter 📈

Wall Street started with its best day in a year on a ceasefire rally, only to end with a one-two punch: inflation came in hot and American consumers reported the worst economic outlook in modern history.

The S&P 500 still finished up 3.7% for the week, but the mood shifted fast.

Let’s get into it 👇️ 

📆 Monday 4/13 — Goldman Sachs Q1 Earnings (Before Open): First major bank to report kicks off Wall Street's earnings season. Watch trading revenue and deal commentary for signals on how the Iran-war quarter played out.

📆 Monday 4/13 — March Existing Home Sales (10 AM ET): First read on housing demand during the month mortgage rates climbed through 6.46%. February came in at 4.09 million annualized.

📆 Tuesday 4/14 — March PPI (8:30 AM ET): After CPI came in hot at 3.3%, producer prices will show whether inflation pressure is building upstream. February's PPI rose 0.7% month-over-month.

📆 Tuesday 4/14 — JPMorgan Chase Q1 Earnings (Before Open): The nation's largest bank reports with consensus EPS around $5.44. Jamie Dimon's macro outlook and credit quality commentary will set the tone.

📆 Thursday 4/16 — Netflix Q1 Earnings (After Close): Subscriber growth and ad-tier revenue in focus as the streamer guided for $3.26 billion net income. TSMC's full earnings call is also that day.

😬 The consumer price index jumped 0.9% in March (the largest monthly increase in nearly four years) pushing the annual rate to 3.3%, up sharply from 2.4% in February. Energy prices surged 10.9% and gasoline alone spiked 21.2%, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total increase. Core prices (excluding food and energy) rose just 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually, both a tenth below forecast. (BLS)

🇮🇷 VP Vance left Pakistan Sunday morning without a deal after marathon negotiations with Iran's delegation broke down over nuclear commitments and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Vance said Iran "chose not to accept our terms," specifically a fundamental commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. The ceasefire remains in effect, but analysts expect risk assets to sell off Monday and oil to gap higher. (NPR)

💰️ TSMC posted record $35.6 billion Q1 revenue on relentless AI demand. The world's largest chipmaker reported revenue surged 35% year-over-year, landing at the top of its $34.6-$35.8 billion guidance range. March alone grew 45.2% from a year earlier. TSMC fabricates roughly nine out of ten advanced AI chips globally and guided record capital expenditure of $52-56 billion for 2026. Full earnings call is April 16. (Quartz)

📈 The S&P 500 gained 3.7% for the week, closing at 6,817 on Friday. The Nasdaq rose 4.2% and the Russell 2000 returned 4.3%, with most gains concentrated in Wednesday's ceasefire rally. Friday turned negative as the CPI report and record-low sentiment reading dampened enthusiasm — the Dow fell 0.56% and the S&P slipped 0.11%. (Financial Synergies)

🤩 BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF pulled in $269 million in a single day. Institutional Bitcoin demand surged Thursday as BlackRock's IBIT recorded its highest single-day inflow in five weeks, with clients using the ETF as a geopolitical hedge. Bitcoin traded near $73,000, holding above the $70,000 level it reclaimed during the ceasefire rally. BlackRock's fund now holds roughly 485,000 BTC worth over $48 billion. (Blockchain Magazine)

🤝 CoreWeave landed a $21 billion AI cloud deal with Meta. The recently public AI cloud company announced a deal to provide Meta with additional computing capacity through 2032, cementing its position as a major AI infrastructure player just weeks after its IPO. The deal underscores how aggressively Big Tech is spending on AI compute — Meta alone has guided $115-135 billion in 2026 capex. (Yahoo Finance)

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index plunged to 47.6 in April's preliminary reading, the lowest in the survey's 70-plus-year history. 

This blew past the previous record low of 50 set during peak inflation in June 2022.

Economists had expected a reading of 52, which would have been bad enough, but the actual number was far worse.

The decline was broad-based, with every major index component falling and sentiment dropping across all demographic groups — by age, income, education, and political affiliation. 

Nearly all of the surveys (98%) were completed before the ceasefire announcement on April 8, meaning the data captures the full weight of wartime anxiety without any relief rally optimism baked in.

The inflation expectations numbers were especially alarming. One-year inflation expectations surged to 4.8% from 3.8% in March, the largest single-month jump since April 2025.

Long-run expectations (five years out) climbed to 3.4%, the highest since November 2025. When consumers expect prices to keep rising, they often pull back spending or rush to buy before prices climb further (both of which can become self-fulfilling prophecies).

One-year business expectations crashed 20%, while assessments of personal finances fell 11%, with respondents citing rising prices and shrinking asset values as the primary drivers.

The combination of a five-week Strait of Hormuz closure, surging gasoline prices, and uncertainty about the Iran conflict has created a level of economic anxiety that exceeds even the worst months of the pandemic.

What to watch: the final April reading drops at the end of the month, and the collapsed peace talks in Islamabad could push the number even lower. If expectations stay anchored here, the Fed faces an impossible puzzle: inflation expectations are running away, but raising rates into the weakest consumer confidence on record risks tipping the economy into recession.

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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your research before making any trades.